Putin ‘plotting to break NATO without firing a shot’, Latvian military analyst warns

EXCLUSIVE: Military expert warns Moscow is using sabotage, border provocations and threats of war to divide Western allies and force NATO troops out of Eastern Europe as part of a peace deal over Ukraine

Vladimir Putin is plotting to weaken NATO from within by using sabotage, migration crises and military intimidation to divide Western governments and force the alliance to retreat from Eastern Europe, a Latvian military analyst has warned.

Roberts Rasums, an officer in the Latvian National Armed Forces and security analyst at the Northern Europe Policy Center, believes Moscow is deliberately spreading fear and uncertainty across Europe while attempting to link a peace settlement in Ukraine to the withdrawal of NATO forces from the Baltic states, Poland and Finland.

Writing exclusively for The European, he said the Kremlin’s strategy includes suspected sabotage networks recruited through TikTok and Telegram, cyberattacks, border provocations and threats of military confrontation in Estonia, Latvia and the strategically important Suwałki corridor.

Russia could also exploit Europe’s economic difficulties by offering oil and gas in exchange for concessions, while encouraging political divisions over the cost of supporting Ukraine and maintaining NATO troops near its borders.

“Doubt and uncertainty are, therefore, central to this strategy. I believe Russia’s immediate objective is neither NATO’s collapse, Ukraine’s unconditional surrender nor the annexation of the Baltic states,” he wrote. 

“Rather, Moscow is seeking to undermine the alliance’s unity while pursuing diplomatic concessions on issues that may appear relatively minor but carry far-reaching strategic consequences.”

He added: “Moscow’s intention is not to have its demands met immediately, but to sow discord among Western allies by prompting debate over them within NATO and the EU.”

His warning comes amid growing concern over suspected Russian sabotage across Europe, including plots involving social media recruits and border provocations linked to migration pressures in Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

Narva in Estonia, the Suwałki corridor between Poland and Lithuania, and Latgale in eastern Latvia could all become possible flashpoints for a limited confrontation designed to test NATO’s response, he warns.

But Rasums, whose research specialises in hybrid threats, military history and international relations, said Moscow’s most effective weapon could be the prospect of a negotiated peace in Ukraine, with Western governments encouraged to accept reductions in NATO’s eastern military presence as the price of an agreement.

He wrote: “I believe those furthest from the alliance’s eastern flank, particularly those facing significant domestic political challenges, may be more inclined to seek a negotiated settlement with Moscow.”

The Kremlin could also exploit political disagreements during forthcoming European elections, particularly over the financial cost of supporting Ukraine and the possibility of a wider war.

“This is a long-term game in which NATO must marshal all available resources, both on the alliance’s eastern border and in Brussels and Paris,” Rasums added.

READ MORE: How Putin plans to break NATO without going to war. Russia’s greatest threat to NATO may lie far beyond the battlefield. Writing exclusively for The European, Roberts Rasums, a security analyst at the Northern Europe Policy Center and an officer in the Latvian National Armed Forces, argues that Moscow is waging a calculated campaign of sabotage, intimidation and political manipulation to fracture the alliance, undermine European security and force the West into concessions over Ukraine.

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_{Main image: Vladimir Putin (centre) with then Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (left) and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov during the Vostok 2018 military exercises. A Latvian military analyst has warned that Moscow is seeking to weaken NATO through sabotage, intimidation and political pressure, potentially forcing Western troops out of Eastern Europe without a direct military confrontation. Credit: Kremlin.ru / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0)}