French CEOs warn politics and geopolitics now threaten bottom lines, ESSEC study finds

Rising costs, supply chain shocks and cyberattacks are already hitting French companies, but most executives admit they still lack systematic plans to deal with geopolitical risk, according to a new barometer from ESSEC Business School

French business leaders say political uncertainty at home and global tensions abroad are weighing heavily on their companies, yet most have failed to prepare for the risks, according to new research by ESSEC Business School.

The first Geopolitics & Business Barometer, published in partnership with L’Express and polling firm OpinionWay, surveyed 100 executives and committee members from companies employing more than 250 staff. 

Ninety-seven per cent reported their firm had already been hit by a geopolitical shock.

The main impacts cited were rising costs of raw materials (81 per cent) and energy (80 per cent), supply chain disruption (46 per cent) and cyberattacks (40 per cent).

Despite this exposure, only a minority of leaders said they had systematically integrated geopolitical risk into strategy.

Many remain “in wait-and-see mode”, relying on outside advice rather than developing internal capacity, the report notes.

The ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business warns that three risks remain underestimated by corporate France: a shift in US foreign policy towards “economic predation”; Russia’s continuing threat to Europe; and the depth of China’s integration into the European economy, which could prove critical if tensions over Taiwan escalate.

The authors recommend companies act now to strengthen their own preparedness, including building in-house geopolitical expertise, appointing executives with responsibility for risk, and adopting forward-looking scenario planning.

Vincenzo Vinzi, dean and president of ESSEC, said the new barometer would become a reference point for decision-makers.

“With the Geopolitics & Business Barometer, ESSEC creates a benchmark to understand how business leaders perceive geopolitical risks and the strategies they adopt to remain competitive in an international environment that is increasingly brutal, complex, and uncertain,” he said.

“Our Institute for Geopolitics & Business aims to become a reference for all leaders seeking to make informed decisions in this context.”

Sébastien Le Fol, deputy editor-in-chief of L’Express, added that the study underscored a mismatch between the global nature of current crises and the national focus of political leaders.

“The major challenges of our time are inherently international in scope. Yet leaders—politicians in particular—continue to act as if they can be understood and resolved at the national level alone,” he added. 

“Since its founding, L’Express has always placed geopolitical issues at the heart of its news coverage, delivering the most insightful information to its readers—who are also French and European decision-makers. 

“With the ESSEC Geopolitics & Business Barometer, these leaders now have a valuable tool to better navigate our turbulent times.”

Frédéric Micheau, deputy CEO of OpinionWay, said the tool filled an important gap, adding: “Until now, there has been no instrument to study how geopolitical shocks disrupt economic models and the transformations companies must implement to address them.”

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